Treasury Yields Rise
Published October 31, 2025
U.S. Treasury yields stayed steady early in the week with a better-than-expected consumer confidence report. Yields increased toward the end of the week after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the second time this year.
On Tuesday, the Conference Board reported that its Consumer Confidence Index decreased 1.0 point to 94.6 in October. This marked a decline from September’s revised reading of 95.6 and came in better than economists’ forecast of 93.2. The decline reflected concerns over inflation, tariffs and employment uncertainty, which continue to weigh on consumer sentiment.
“Consumers’ view of current business conditions inched upward, while their appraisal of current job availability improved for the first time since December 2024,” said senior economist of global indicators at The Conference Board, Stephanie Guichard. “On the other hand, all three components of the Expectations Index weakened somewhat. Consumers were a bit more pessimistic about future job availability and future business conditions while optimism about future income retreated slightly.”
The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield opened the week of October 27 at 4.02% and traded as high as 4.12% on Thursday. The 30-year Treasury bond opened the week at 4.60% and traded as high as 4.67% on Thursday.
On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced a 10-2 vote in favor of lowering interest rates by one quarter of a percentage point to a range of 3.75% to 4%. This marks the lowest interest rate levels since 2022. The Fed continues to manage monetary policy without essential government published economic data due to the government shutdown.
“In the committee’s discussions at this meeting, there were strongly differing views about how to proceed in December,” said Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell. “A further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion. Far from it.”
The 10-year Treasury note yield finished the week of 10/27 at 4.08%, while the 30-year Treasury note yield finished the week at 4.66%.
