Treasury Yields Fluctuate
Published August 22, 2025
U.S. Treasury yields declined midweek as investors reacted to the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s most recent meeting which noted that a majority of officials preferred to leave rates unchanged. Yields fell toward the end of the week following the latest jobless report showing the highest number of claims since June.
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve released the minutes from its July Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. At the meeting, most of the policy makers agreed to leave the key federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.50%. The minutes revealed that two Fed governors dissented, signifying divergence within the Fed regarding interest rates. The Fed has held rates steady since December.
“Participants generally pointed to risks to both sides of the Committee’s dual mandate, emphasizing upside risk to inflation and downside risk to employment,” the minutes noted. While “a majority of participants judged the upside risk to inflation as the greater of these two risks” a couple saw “downside risk to employment the more salient risk.”
The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield opened the week of August 18 at 4.32% and traded as high as 4.35% on Thursday. The 30-year Treasury bond opened the week at 4.92% and traded as high as 4.95% on Thursday.
On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial claims for unemployment were 235,000 for the week ending August 16. This was up 11,000 from the prior week and exceeded expectations of 229,000. Continuing unemployment claims increased by 30,000 to 1.97 million.
"The latest rise in initial jobless claims hints at some new softening in labor market conditions, but we cannot infer anything conclusive from one week's data, particularly in a week when seasonal factors lent an upside bias to the headline figure," said Lead U.S. Economist at Oxford Economics, Nancy Vanden Houten. “Although they bounce around week to week, we think continued claims have probably leveled off.”
The 10-year Treasury note yield finished the week of 8/18 at 4.26%, while the 30-year Treasury note yield finished the week at 4.89%.
